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• [August 2017 Update to the Shared cM Project][1], posted 26 August 2017 by Blaine Bettinger
• AncestryDNA White Paper on [DNA Matching][2]
• AncestryDNA White Paper on [DNA Circles][3]

Here is the new Relationship Chart from the shared cM project:

[![enter image description here][4]][4]

And here is the updated Cluster Chart:

[![enter image description here][5]][5]

• August 2017 Update to the Shared cM Project, posted 26 August 2017 by Blaine Bettinger
• AncestryDNA White Paper on DNA Matching
• AncestryDNA White Paper on DNA Circles

Roberta Estes's post Shared cM Project 2017 Update Combined Chart updates the information in Concepts – Relationship Predictions -- comparing the expected percentages and shared cM for certain relationships with what values are being reported to the project.

Further caution (added October 2018) -- apparently DNA Circles may not be formed if the trees with the same people have small variations in a person's name. If one tree lists a middle initial and the other doesn't, for example, the algorithm won't match them.

I think the answer is probably "it depends" -- and it may not be possible to do this with the information displayed for an AncestryDNA circle alone.

You may find the following resources helpful:

• August 2017 Update to the Shared cM Project, posted 26 August 2017 by Blaine Bettinger
• AncestryDNA White Paper on DNA Matching
• AncestryDNA White Paper on DNA Circles

From the DNA Circles White Paper:

One pertinent point relating to IBD [identity-by-descent] is that even if two AncestryDNA members are both descended from a particular ancestor, they may not necessarily share any DNA inherited IBD (e.g., individuals C and E in Figure 2.1). Due to the randomness of genetic inheritance, one doesn't necessarily share DNA with all of one's distant cousins, particularly fourth cousins and beyond. While sharing DNA identical-by-descent is often evidence of the relatedness of two individuals, the lack of an IBD match does not necessarily imply a lack of a distant genealogical relationship.

Thus, the third and final goal of DNA Circles is to allow relatives who do not share identical-by-descent stretches of DNA to collaborate with one another.

The white paper also discusses the problem that a user of AncestryDNA may not have a completely-filled out pedigree, that the pedigree may not be accurate, and that the users who have been grouped together in a DNA Circle may actually have an IBD match because of a different most recent common ancestor (MCRA) than the Ancestor shown in the circle.

The size of the DNA Circle and the confidence scores of the matches for the members are taken into account, and the Whitepaper addresses how these factors affect Ancestry's algorithms.

The white paper on DNA Matching yields another important clue:

An important feature of our method is that we do not keep track of all matching segments; in step 5, we filter out a candidate match if its genetic distance is less than 6cM.

You may be able to infer more than Ancestry's DNA Circle displays tell you, if any of the members of the Circle have also uploaded their data to GEDMatch or you have other means to view their results on a site with a chromosome browser.

Here is the new Relationship Chart from the shared cM project:

And here is the updated Cluster Chart:

I think it's definitely a question worth asking, but whether the answer is YES or NO may depend entirely on the specific DNA Circle -- how many people are in the circle, how complete and accurate their paper-trail research is, and how distant the members' relationships are to you.

I think the answer is probably "it depends" -- and it may not be possible to do this with the information displayed for an AncestryDNA circle alone.

You may find the following resources helpful:

• [August 2017 Update to the Shared cM Project][1], posted 26 August 2017 by Blaine Bettinger
• AncestryDNA White Paper on [DNA Matching][2]
• AncestryDNA White Paper on [DNA Circles][3]

From the DNA Circles White Paper:

One pertinent point relating to IBD [identity-by-descent] is that even if two AncestryDNA members are both descended from a particular ancestor, they may not necessarily share any DNA inherited IBD (e.g., individuals C and E in Figure 2.1). Due to the randomness of genetic inheritance, one doesn't necessarily share DNA with all of one's distant cousins, particularly fourth cousins and beyond. While sharing DNA identical-by-descent is often evidence of the relatedness of two individuals, the lack of an IBD match does not necessarily imply a lack of a distant genealogical relationship.

Thus, the third and final goal of DNA Circles is to allow relatives who do not share identical-by-descent stretches of DNA to collaborate with one another.

The white paper also discusses the problem that a user of AncestryDNA may not have a completely-filled out pedigree, that the pedigree may not be accurate, and that the users who have been grouped together in a DNA Circle may actually have an IBD match because of a different most recent common ancestor (MCRA) than the Ancestor shown in the circle.

The size of the DNA Circle and the confidence scores of the matches for the members are taken into account, and the Whitepaper addresses how these factors affect Ancestry's algorithms.

The white paper on DNA Matching yields another important clue:

An important feature of our method is that we do not keep track of all matching segments; in step 5, we filter out a candidate match if its genetic distance is less than 6cM.

You may be able to infer more than Ancestry's DNA Circle displays tell you, if any of the members of the Circle have also uploaded their data to GEDMatch or you have other means to view their results on a site with a chromosome browser.

Here is the new Relationship Chart from the shared cM project:

[![enter image description here][4]][4]

And here is the updated Cluster Chart:

[![enter image description here][5]][5]

I think it's definitely a question worth asking, but whether the answer is YES or NO may depend entirely on the specific DNA Circle -- how many people are in the circle, how complete and accurate their paper-trail research is, and how distant the members' relationships are to you.

These recent posts by Blaine Bettinger discuss the problem of small segment matches and may also be of interest:

• Sharing Large Segments With a Match Does Not Validate Small Segments Shared With That Match posted 3 September 2017 which linked to:
• Small Matching Segments – Friend or Foe? posted 2 December 2014:

See especially this caution:

EDIT (4 December 2014) – Ann Turner has noted that the genomes used to generate the graph above were phased using the popular BEAGLE phasing program. The segment data we get from 23andMe and Family Tree DNA, on the other hand, is based on unphased genomes.

I think the answer is probably "it depends" -- and it may not be possible to do this with the information displayed for an AncestryDNA circle alone.

You may find the following resources helpful:

• August 2017 Update to the Shared cM Project, posted 26 August 2017 by Blaine Bettinger
• AncestryDNA White Paper on DNA Matching
• AncestryDNA White Paper on DNA Circles

From the DNA Circles White Paper:

One pertinent point relating to IBD is that even if two AncestryDNA members are both descended from a particular ancestor, they may not necessarily share any DNA inherited IBD (e.g., individuals C and E in Figure 2.1). Due to the randomness of genetic inheritance, one doesn't necessarily share DNA with all of one's distant cousins, particularly fourth cousins and beyond. While sharing DNA identical-by-descent is often evidence of the relatedness of two individuals, the lack of an IBD match does not necessarily imply a lack of a distant genealogical relationship.

Thus, the third and final goal of DNA Circles is to allow relatives who do not share identical-by-descent stretches of DNA to collaborate with one another.

The white paper also discusses the problem that a user of AncestryDNA may not have a completely-filled out pedigree, that the pedigree may not be accurate, and that the users who have been grouped together in a DNA Circle may actually have an IBD match because of a different MCRA than the Ancestor shown in the circle.

The size of the DNA Circle and the confidence scores of the matches for the members are taken into account, and the Whitepaper addresses how these factors affect Ancestry's algorithms.

The white paper on DNA Matching yields another important clue:

An important feature of our method is that we do not keep track of all matching segments; in step 5, we filter out a candidate match if its genetic distance is less than 6cM.

You may be able to infer more than Ancestry's DNA Circle displays tell you, if any of the members of the Circle have also uploaded their data to GEDMatch or you have other means to view their results on a site with a chromosome browser.

Here is the new Relationship Chart from the shared cM project:

And here is the updated Cluster Chart:

I think it's definitely a question worth asking, but whether the answer is YES or NO may depend entirely on the specific DNA Circle -- how many people are in the circle, how complete and accurate their paper-trail research is, and how distant the members' relationships are to you.

I think the answer is probably "it depends" -- and it may not be possible to do this with the information displayed for an AncestryDNA circle alone.

You may find the following resources helpful:

• August 2017 Update to the Shared cM Project, posted 26 August 2017 by Blaine Bettinger
• AncestryDNA White Paper on DNA Matching
• AncestryDNA White Paper on DNA Circles

From the DNA Circles White Paper:

One pertinent point relating to IBD [identity-by-descent] is that even if two AncestryDNA members are both descended from a particular ancestor, they may not necessarily share any DNA inherited IBD (e.g., individuals C and E in Figure 2.1). Due to the randomness of genetic inheritance, one doesn't necessarily share DNA with all of one's distant cousins, particularly fourth cousins and beyond. While sharing DNA identical-by-descent is often evidence of the relatedness of two individuals, the lack of an IBD match does not necessarily imply a lack of a distant genealogical relationship.

Thus, the third and final goal of DNA Circles is to allow relatives who do not share identical-by-descent stretches of DNA to collaborate with one another.

The white paper also discusses the problem that a user of AncestryDNA may not have a completely-filled out pedigree, that the pedigree may not be accurate, and that the users who have been grouped together in a DNA Circle may actually have an IBD match because of a different most recent common ancestor (MCRA) than the Ancestor shown in the circle.

The size of the DNA Circle and the confidence scores of the matches for the members are taken into account, and the Whitepaper addresses how these factors affect Ancestry's algorithms.

The white paper on DNA Matching yields another important clue:

An important feature of our method is that we do not keep track of all matching segments; in step 5, we filter out a candidate match if its genetic distance is less than 6cM.

You may be able to infer more than Ancestry's DNA Circle displays tell you, if any of the members of the Circle have also uploaded their data to GEDMatch or you have other means to view their results on a site with a chromosome browser.

Here is the new Relationship Chart from the shared cM project:

And here is the updated Cluster Chart:

I think it's definitely a question worth asking, but whether the answer is YES or NO may depend entirely on the specific DNA Circle -- how many people are in the circle, how complete and accurate their paper-trail research is, and how distant the members' relationships are to you.