Understanding 1,537cM match to person and 1,950cM match to their uncle

I have a match with a female that is a few years younger than me (she is in the 60s). She and I match at 1,537 cM across 47 segments.

Her Uncle (Paternal Uncle, as far as I know) is a match with me at 1,950 cM across 76 segments.

I have never met these two individuals or ever heard anything about them. The female's father (he is deceased) grew up in a small town with my mother (3 years different in ages). My Mom was married at the time to my father(?).

When I ask for matches I am getting no one with my last name, but a lot of people I have never heard of.

What is your best and candid explanation of the situation?

I want to see if it matches mine. The way I have worded the preceding, obviously gives you a clue to what I think.

• Sounds like her uncle is probably also your uncle. Do you know the identities of all of your mother's siblings? Nov 3 '20 at 19:53

The Shared cM Project 3.0 tool v4 suggests for 1,537 cM that the relationship has these probabilities (based on stats from The DNA Geek):

• 100.00% Grandparent Aunt / Uncle Half Sibling Niece / Nephew Grandchild
• ~0% Great-Aunt / Uncle Great-Niece / Nephew

and that the:

[second] set of relationships is just within the threshold for 1537cM, but has a zero probability in thednageek's table of probabilities

Based on the age of your match in comparison to your own age (which is three years difference) I think your first theory should be that you may be half siblings.

The Shared cM Project 3.0 tool v4 suggests the same relationships for 1,950 cM and you already know this match is an uncle (and you think that uncle is paternal) to the first match (who may be a half sibling to you), and this shared centimorgan value would suggest that her uncle may also be your uncle.

• I would like to see more explanations......for this type of surprising situation I want to be sure of what has happened......if I can not get more explanations here can someone tell me where to go to get additional accurate and candid explanations. Thank you.
– Greg
Feb 5 '20 at 23:34
• I can only assess the evidence you presented in your question, which I have already done in my answer.
– PolyGeo
Feb 5 '20 at 23:47
• Ok, thanks for that clarification....I thought others answered questions also....since I saw some questions with multiple answers.
– Greg
Feb 7 '20 at 6:35