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Questions tagged [statistics]

For questions about statistical analysis or probability assessment of genealogical problems.

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2answers
77 views

Assessing the frequency of surname in an 18th century English parish

I have a set of marriage and baptism records for an 18th century/early 19th century English parish, and want to assess the probability that the participants are related in some way, before I spend ...
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1answer
94 views

What proportion of the births or baptisms of children were recorded in early nineteenth century England?

It's usual to search for a baptism record as a substitute birth record in England in the period prior to the start of Civil Registration (i.e. pre-1837.) (Baptism records may also include birth ...
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1answer
92 views

How to know in GEDCOM if a filiation is unknowable?

In a gedcom file, how do I know if a child has been « found » i.e a child abandoned? In this case, the child has no known ancestor and won't have ever. Heredis program creates a custom tag « _FIL ...
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1answer
692 views

Is everyone of European ancestry actually descended from Muhammad and Charlemagne?

According to this article in The Atlantic back in May 2002, The mathematical study of genealogy indicates that everyone in the world is descended from Nefertiti and Confucius, and everyone of ...
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0answers
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How many British men and women were serving in the Boer War at the time of the 1901 census?

I have several young men and women who I cannot trace on the British 1901 census, despite numerous and extensive efforts. While there are a number of reasons why I might not be able to find them, one ...
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4answers
349 views

Statistical analysis of data within my genealogy program?

I wish to find a program which will allow me to pose certain specific questions and have my genealogy program answer them such as: What is the average age of a named person's direct male ancestors? ...
4
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1answer
159 views

What are chances of a yDNA match by chance and not by close common ancestor?

On FamilyTreeDNA, they have their TiP Report that gives the probability that two matching members shared a common ancestor within the last number of generations. E.g., for a yDNA-37 match with 4 ...
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1answer
94 views

Determining average number of people that have same surname as random person?

This website gives the approximate number of people with a particular surname in all countries: http://forebears.io/surnames It spits a number, for example "1500 people", but the problem is that I ...
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1answer
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How many generations back is suggested by 6 mutations on a yDNA-67 match?

I have a yDNA-111 test that finds a match with a yDNA-67 test with 6 mutations and a name variation, Thorp vs Tharp. Statistically, how many generations away would our common ancestor be to give a ...
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1answer
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Gramps' Prolog Export Function: fancy filter or statistical tool?

Gramps is one of the most widely used genealogy program as far as I know and has recently seen another addition to its wide array of export features, called prolog as announced here. Can someone show ...
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1answer
2k views

Do we have more female than male ancestors?

I have read a claim in several sources, including a New York Times article by John Tierney, that we have more female ancestors than male ancestors. "Citing recent DNA research, Dr. Baumeister ...
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2answers
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Average time between birth and baptism in the Church of England?

Because it is relatively uncommon to find sources of birth dates before the start of civil registration in England in 1837, it is a widespread (and I think not unreasonable) convention for ...
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2answers
174 views

Where can I access annual reports of the registrar-general for England after 1920?

The annual reports of the registrar-general relating to births, marriage, and deaths in England and Wales were published every year since civil registration began, and are available at the Histpop ...
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1answer
57 views

Can we estimate the distribution of last names in 19th century Rhode Island?

I am researching the histories of a number of Rhode Island families. It would be very useful for me if I had historical data on the distribution of last names in Rhode Island at any point before the ...
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1answer
1k views

Average age at marriage in Highland Scotland in 18th century

I am seeking the parents of my 3x-great-grandmother, Isabella Colville, who was baptised in 1785 in Invergowrie. According to her baptism record, her father was John Colville. Her eldest sibling (...
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0answers
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Average number of ancestors [duplicate]

Every individual has two parents, four grand-parents and so on. This would yield an astronomical number of ancestors even after a small number of generations, e.g. 235 ∼ 34 billions. The solution ...
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1answer
93 views

What can be gleaned statistically from Surname occurence in Population?

Is there a calculation or test to determine if the occurrence of a surname in a population in a specific geographical area is statistically significant or just a random distribution? For example, in ...
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2answers
167 views

How can I assess the statistical probability that an individual is the one I seek?

I have an ancestor Caroline Ellen Brown (also mentioned in this question: How might a "nurse-child" have been placed with their carers?) for whom the marriage and birth records are elusive. ...
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3answers
260 views

What completeness index to use for your genealogical tree?

I am currently working on a lot of ancestries, with some of more than 13 generations. Obviously, I don't have all the ancestors for each ancestry. You theoretically expect an exponential growth of the ...
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7answers
5k views

How many ancestors alive 1000 years ago does a person have on average?

I was thinking about something the other day (that is probably stupid), and thought this would be a good place to talk about it. If someone wanted to draw its family tree over the last 1000 years, he'...
3
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1answer
437 views

How rare/common is a surname in the US Social Security Death Index?

I would like to know the 'rank' of how common or rare a surname is in the SSDI. For example: Smith is the most common name with 1234567 entries and Sparrell is the 12345th most common name with 123 ...
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3answers
668 views

How rare/common is a surname in US currently?

I realize asking 'how rare/common' is a relative question. In my gedcom, my surname is common but in my local phone directory it is very rare (we are the only family in our rather large town). I ...